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The numbers
September 2026 CPI, from the BLS release of October 14. One-month changes are seasonally adjusted.
| One month | 12 months | |
|---|---|---|
| All items | +0.6% | +3.7% |
| Gasoline | +9.1% | +34.2% |
| Energy overall | +20.4% | |
| Food at home (groceries) | -0.1% | +1.8% |
| Beef | -1.0% | |
| Fresh whole milk | -2.0% | |
| All items less food and energy (core) | +0.3% | +2.6% |
| Air fares | +22.4% |
Prices also rose 0.4% in August, so September was the biggest one-month rise in five months, and the 3.7% 12-month rate is the highest since May's 4.2%. Strip out food and energy and the picture is calmer: core prices rose 0.3% in September and 2.6% over the year. Gasoline alone accounted for over half of September's one-month increase, according to the BLS release. This is a fuel story first.
Why this is the last one before the vote
The BLS publishes CPI on a fixed schedule. September's report came out on October 14. The next report, October's, is scheduled for November 10 at 8:30 AM ET. The midterm elections are November 3.
So the September report is the final official read on prices voters get before ballots are cast, and the report that captures the autumn gas surge arrives a week after the vote.
The catch in the next report*
Pump prices have started to drift down. US regular gasoline peaked at $4.478 a gallon in the EIA's Sept 21 reading and was $4.331 in the October 12 reading. AAA put the national average at $4.333 on October 14.
That sounds like relief. The 12-month math says it may not show up that way. Inflation compares this month with the same month a year ago, and a year ago gas was falling: EIA's average was $3.166 in September 2025 and $3.060 in October 2025. A lower bar.
Do the arithmetic. September 2026 averaged $4.355, which is 37.6% above September 2025.* If October 2026 averages $4.33, it would be about 41.5% above October 2025.* The pump price fell. The 12-month gap got wider. For the gap to stop growing, October would need to average below about $4.21 a gallon, roughly 12 cents under current prices.*
These are EIA pump-price figures, not the BLS gasoline index, so treat them as a guide to direction, not a forecast of the next CPI itself.*
Worked example: a $50 fill-up*
At September's 12-month gasoline rate of +34.2%, a fill-up that cost $50 a year ago costs about $67.* That is an illustration using the BLS index change, not a measured pump price. What you actually pay depends on your station and your tank.
What voters are saying
The economy is the top issue in this election, across the political spectrum. In Pew Research Center's survey of September 28 to October 4, published October 8:
84% of registered voters call the economy very important to their vote, including 88% of voters who support Democrats and 82% who back Republicans.
74% of Americans say they are very concerned about the price of gasoline and energy, up from 60% in July and 43% in January, before the Iran conflict. 73% are very concerned about food and consumer goods prices.
Just 21% rate national economic conditions as excellent or good.
Common questions
Why did the rate rise if groceries and beef got cheaper? Because gasoline carries more weight and moved more. Gasoline rose 9.1% in one month while groceries slipped 0.1%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, ran at 2.6% over the year, close to recent months.
Is this really the last CPI report before the election? Yes, on the BLS schedule. October's CPI is due November 10, a week after the November 3 vote.
Pump prices are falling. Won't the next report improve? Not automatically. The 12-month comparison is against October 2025, when gas averaged less than in September 2025. On current EIA figures the 12-month gap would widen slightly.* Falling prices help only once they fall faster than they did a year ago.
Is this page a prediction about the election? No. It reports price data and published polling. What either means for results is for voters to decide.
Asterisk note
The 37.6%, 41.5% and $4.21 figures are our own arithmetic on EIA retail regular gasoline prices (all formulations): September 2026 average $4.355 vs September 2025 average $3.166; October 2025 average $3.060; October 2026 assumes $4.33. The EIA series is a pump-price proxy and does not equal the BLS gasoline index. The $50 to $67 fill-up is an illustration using the 34.2% BLS 12-month gasoline index change, not a measured pump price.
Related
Why your prices may have risen more than the 39% average: category by category, August 2016 to August 2026.
Which household basket got hit hardest, 2016 to 2026?: 11 BLS price categories and three example households.
Is your raise beating inflation?: what a raise needs to be when prices run at this pace.
Price to Hours Calculator: what everyday prices cost in work time, 2016 vs now.
Sources
Retrieved October 14, 2026.
Price data: BLS Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (released October 14, 2026). Series: CUUR0000SA0 (all items), CUUR0000SETB01 (gasoline), CUUR0000SA0E (energy), CUUR0000SAF11 (food at home), CUUR0000SEFC (beef and veal), CUUR0000SEFJ01 (fresh whole milk), CUUR0000SA0L1E (less food and energy), CUUR0000SETG01 (airline fares), via the BLS public data API. One-month changes seasonally adjusted.
Report schedule: BLS CPI release schedule (October 2026 CPI due November 10, 2026, 8:30 AM ET).
Pump prices: EIA Weekly Retail Gasoline Prices (regular, all formulations: September 21 reading $4.478, October 12 reading $4.331); AAA national average ($4.333 as of October 14, 2026).
Polling: Pew Research Center, Cost Concerns Dominate and Pew Research Center, Midterm Engagement (both October 8, 2026; survey of 5,062 US adults including 3,917 registered voters, September 28 to October 4, 2026).
Limits
Reporting and explanation, not investment or voting advice. Polling figures are as published by each source on its stated date and can change.