Are wages keeping up with inflation in 2026?

Two lines, one story

The BLS publishes average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls. It was $27.59 in January 2019 and $37.76 in August 2026. A newer reading, for September 2026, is $37.81. The consumer price index has not yet been published for September, so this post compares the two through August.

From January 2019 to August 2026 pay rose 36.9%, ahead of the 32.3% rise in prices. Dividing one by the other gives a real pay index: it stands at 103.4 where 100 is January 2019. In plain terms the average hourly wage buys about 3.4% more than it did before the pandemic.

The real pay index

Worked example: a $25 an hour job in 2019

Suppose someone earned $25.00 an hour in January 2019 and their pay tracked the average. By August 2026 they would be on about $34.22 an hour. To keep the same buying power as in 2019 they would only need $33.07. The difference is $1.14 an hour, about $2,373 a year at 2,080 hours.

Now the weaker half of the story. During the price surge the real pay index sagged to 99.9 in Jun 2022, below its January 2019 start of 100, and then recovered. Over the most recent 12 months it dipped again: 3.1% pay growth against 3.4% price growth.

Assumptions: national averages across all private jobs, before tax, 2,080 hours a year. An average is not a typical worker. High earners pull it up, and the mix of jobs changes over time.*

Why the average can hide your situation

Average hourly earnings is a clean series, but it is a blend. When lower-paid workers lose jobs, the average rises even though nobody got a raise, and when many people enter lower-paid work the average can slip. Economists adjust for this in other measures, and results differ.* So read the average as a direction, not a verdict.

Hours matter too. The series measures pay per hour, not weekly or annual income. A worker whose hours were cut has a flat or lower paycheck even if the hourly rate rose. And the comparison is before tax and before benefits such as health insurance, where costs have also moved.

The most useful test is personal. Take your hourly rate or salary from January 2019, apply the long-run price rise shown above, and compare it with what you earn now. If you are ahead, you have kept up. If you are behind, you now know the size of the gap to raise in a pay review. The raise-vs-inflation tool linked below does this in one step.

What this means for your wallet

If your raise since 2019 was less than 37%, your raise trailed the change in average hourly earnings across all private employees. That average is not the same group of workers over time, so it is a benchmark and not proof you fell behind. If it was less than 32%, you have fallen behind prices. Many people believe their pay has not kept up even when the average has.* Individual experience varies widely by job, industry and whether you changed employers.

When you ask for a raise, use the numbers in this post as one benchmark, next to your own pay history, your employer's budget and what comparable jobs pay now. A request to cover the last year's inflation is a request for about 3.4%. Matching the average wage gain over the same time is about 3.1%.

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